MLB Picks · 2026-04-11

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Pick of the Day · 2026-04-11

Boston Red Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals

Line: +118 Edge: +9.3% Slight edge –

St. Louis Cardinals (home) - season-to-date numbers show a slight lean over Boston Red Sox. Win probability: 55%. Early-season matchup calibration pulls extremes toward a toss-up until samples deepen. Results calibration (67 graded picks) nudges win probability toward base rates. Line: +118. Model fair value: 55%. Edge: +9.3%.

PICK #2 Miami Marlins Miami Marlins @ Detroit Tigers

+124 +8.0% Slight edge –

PICK #3 Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

+122 +5.2% Slight edge –

PICK #4 Atlanta Braves Cleveland Guardians @ Atlanta Braves

-112 +4.0% Slight edge –

PICK #5 Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies

+110 +3.6% Slight edge –

Shop the line: DraftKings · FanDuel · BetMGM (affiliate links)

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