Today · 2026-09-04
Nothing hit 52%+ win probability with 3 to 10% edge. Big edges on long shots keep failing, so we leave those off.
NFL · REG Week 1
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans · -102 · +5.8% edge · flat 1u. The posted number and every result stay public.
Today's MLB slate
| Matchup | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | 6-7 | Final |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | 2-3 | Live | Top 3rd |
| Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | 3-1 | Live | Top 4th |
| Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 0-0 | Live | Bot 2nd |
| Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | 1-0 | Live | Top 3rd |
| San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | 0-4 | Live | Bot 2nd |
| Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | 1-0 | Live | Bot 2nd |
| Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | 0-0 | Live | Top 1st |
| Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | 0-0 | Live | Top 1st |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | 0-0 | Live | Top 1st |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | 0-0 | 8:10 PM ET |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | 0-0 | 8:10 PM ET |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | 0-0 | 8:40 PM ET |
| New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | 0-0 | 9:40 PM ET |
| Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 0-0 | 10:10 PM ET |
| Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | 0-0 | 10:10 PM ET |
Full model card · 2026-09-04
5 games on today's card. Matchups and scores only. Line and edge stay hidden so they don't tip every side. No free pick today. This is just the teaser. Pro has the full preview.
Free Pick of the Day · All time
118 graded picks; flat 1u per play
The one public pick per day, graded at the line we posted. Every graded pick ever is on the record page.
Last graded: Sep 4, 2026 7:42 PM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
See full graded history →Full model card · All time
590 graded picks; flat 1u per play
The whole card, including the sides held back from the free pick. Pro opens these the day they post; here they are graded after the fact.
Last graded: Sep 4, 2026 7:42 PM ET
The free pick is one play a day. Pro opens the full card the day it posts: every side, line, edge, and write-up, graded the same way.
Most recent 60 of 118 · full ledger
| Date | Play | Pick | Matchup | Score | Line | Units | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | PICK OF THE DAY | Boston Red Sox | Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | 8-3 | -134 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-09-01 | PICK OF THE DAY | Tampa Bay Rays | New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | 2-6 | -122 | +0.82u | W |
| 2026-08-31 | PICK OF THE DAY | Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves | 7-3 | -164 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-08-30 | PICK OF THE DAY | Milwaukee Brewers | Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7-4 | -154 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-08-29 | PICK OF THE DAY | Milwaukee Brewers | Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | 3-5 | -156 | +0.64u | W |
| 2026-08-28 | PICK OF THE DAY | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | 7-4 | +100 | +1.00u | W |
| 2026-08-27 | PICK OF THE DAY | Washington Nationals | Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals | 1-7 | -120 | +0.83u | W |
| 2026-08-26 | PICK OF THE DAY | Washington Nationals | Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals | 13-1 | -122 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-08-23 | PICK OF THE DAY | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 3-8 | -134 | +0.75u | W |
| 2026-08-22 | PICK OF THE DAY | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 4-3 | -106 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-08-21 | PICK OF THE DAY | Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 2-5 | -112 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-08-20 | PICK OF THE DAY | Milwaukee Brewers | Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | 4-7 | -124 | +0.81u | W |
| 2026-08-19 | PICK OF THE DAY | Milwaukee Brewers | Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | 7-5 | -125 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-08-18 | PICK OF THE DAY | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | 10-5 | -130 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-08-17 | PICK OF THE DAY | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | 2-4 | -126 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-08-16 | PICK OF THE DAY | Atlanta Braves | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | 3-5 | -122 | +0.82u | W |
| 2026-08-15 | PICK OF THE DAY | Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | 8-4 | +100 | +1.00u | W |
| 2026-08-14 | PICK OF THE DAY | Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers @ Athletics | 3-8 | -108 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-08-13 | PICK OF THE DAY | New York Yankees | Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | 1-0 | -136 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-08-12 | PICK OF THE DAY | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | 3-6 | -148 | +0.68u | W |
| 2026-08-11 | PICK OF THE DAY | Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | 12-4 | -162 | +0.62u | W |
| 2026-08-10 | PICK OF THE DAY | Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | 10-6 | -156 | +0.64u | W |
| 2026-08-09 | PICK OF THE DAY | Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | 3-1 | -116 | +0.86u | W |
| 2026-08-08 | PICK OF THE DAY | Milwaukee Brewers | Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | 3-4 | -142 | +0.70u | W |
| 2026-08-07 | PICK OF THE DAY | Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | 2-5 | -124 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-08-06 | PICK OF THE DAY | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | 2-5 | -132 | +0.76u | W |
| 2026-08-05 | PICK OF THE DAY | Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | 1-4 | -122 | +0.82u | W |
| 2026-08-04 | PICK OF THE DAY | Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies | 9-7 | -142 | +0.70u | W |
| 2026-08-03 | PICK OF THE DAY | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | 4-3 | -138 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-08-02 | PICK OF THE DAY | Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | 2-4 | -118 | +0.85u | W |
| 2026-08-01 | PICK OF THE DAY | Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | 8-6 | -130 | +0.77u | W |
| 2026-07-31 | PICK OF THE DAY | Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | 6-2 | -162 | +0.62u | W |
| 2026-07-30 | PICK OF THE DAY | Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | 4-2 | +102 | +1.02u | W |
| 2026-07-29 | PICK OF THE DAY | Washington Nationals | Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | 5-2 | +102 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-07-28 | PICK OF THE DAY | Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | 8-2 | -142 | +0.70u | W |
| 2026-07-27 | PICK OF THE DAY | Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | 0-3 | -137 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-07-26 | PICK OF THE DAY | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets | 3-8 | -154 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-07-25 | PICK OF THE DAY | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | 2-3 | -102 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-07-24 | PICK OF THE DAY | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles | 7-6 | -102 | +0.98u | W |
| 2026-07-23 | PICK OF THE DAY | Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays | 1-3 | -104 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-07-22 | PICK OF THE DAY | Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | 3-4 | -138 | +0.72u | W |
| 2026-07-21 | PICK OF THE DAY | Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers | 4-0 | -142 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-07-20 | PICK OF THE DAY | St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels | 2-3 | +102 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-07-19 | PICK OF THE DAY | San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | 19-2 | +114 | +1.14u | W |
| 2026-07-17 | PICK OF THE DAY | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | 12-4 | +114 | +1.14u | W |
| 2026-07-12 | PICK OF THE DAY | Chicago White Sox | Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | 1-9 | -116 | +0.86u | W |
| 2026-07-07 | PICK OF THE DAY | Chicago White Sox | Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | 8-1 | +106 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-07-06 | PICK OF THE DAY | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | 7-6 | -130 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-07-01 | PICK OF THE DAY | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Athletics | 1-7 | -162 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-06-30 | PICK OF THE DAY | Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | 9-3 | +118 | +1.18u | W |
| 2026-06-28 | PICK OF THE DAY | Detroit Tigers | Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers | 7-5 | +110 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-06-27 | PICK OF THE DAY | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 9-7 | +100 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-06-25 | PICK OF THE DAY | Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets | 4-3 | -106 | +0.94u | W |
| 2026-06-22 | PICK OF THE DAY | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres | 0-1 | -112 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-06-19 | PICK OF THE DAY | Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros | 3-9 | +102 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-06-16 | PICK OF THE DAY | Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves | 7-2 | -162 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-06-15 | PICK OF THE DAY | New York Mets | New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds | 0-12 | +120 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-06-14 | PICK OF THE DAY | St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | 4-5 | -102 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-06-13 | PICK OF THE DAY | Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | 0-8 | -112 | -1.00u | L |
| 2026-06-12 | PICK OF THE DAY | Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | 1-10 | +112 | -1.00u | L |
Get first dibs when Pro tools launch, plus future daily picks. No spam.
Same process every day. Run the slate, post the best look that clears our bar. No gut calls, no chasing yesterday, no quiet edits later.
We grade teams on season form: wins, runs scored, runs allowed, pitching, plus a small home bump (why). Early year samples swing around. More on that here.
How wide the gap looks. Strong stands out. Slight is closer, so don't get carried away. A lean, not a promise.
The line is the moneyline when we posted. The edge is our fair price vs the board (plain English). A +4% edge means the book is a bit soft on that side. Shop the number before you bet. No line means we did not have one at run time.
Everything grades straight W/L on the team we posted. Cold streaks happen. Variance is normal. Units means your normal bet size, flat 1u every play (why). Nothing gets deleted. CLV is another way to read results besides W/L.
More reads: win probability · why we skip parlays · run differential · all posts.
Bet responsibly. For informational use only. Past results don't guarantee future performance.