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NBA betting guides

How NBA moneylines work, what back-to-backs really cost, and how the daily NBA model rates teams. The free NBA Pick of the Day starts opening night.

Today’s free NBA pick NBA record

Sep 26, 2026 · 6 min read

Free NBA Picks: One Daily Moneyline, Posted Line, Public Record

How our free NBA Pick of the Day works for the 2026-27 season. One moneyline when it clears the bar, the line we graded against, flat 1u, and every result kept public.

Sep 26, 2026 · 6 min read

NBA Moneyline Betting: How the Line Works and When It Beats the Spread

How an NBA moneyline bet works, how to turn the odds into a win probability, why heavy NBA favorites are expensive, and how our free NBA pick uses the moneyline.

Sep 26, 2026 · 7 min read

How Our NBA Betting Model Works: Elo, Home Court, and Back-to-Backs

The NBA model behind our free Pick of the Day, in plain terms. Elo ratings, a 50-point home court, a back-to-back penalty, and a backtest on 15,000+ games.

Sep 26, 2026 · 6 min read

NBA Back-to-Backs: What 15,000 Games Say About Rest and Betting

How much does the second night of a back-to-back cost an NBA team? Home win rates from 2014-15 to 2025-26, how the effect changed, and why the moneyline usually prices it.

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