MLB · graded history
Verified Pick Record
Every graded pick at the line we posted, flat 1u, running total. Nothing gets deleted.
MLB full card · Since 2026-08-14
Flat 1u, every pick
106 graded picks; flat 1u per play
Overall
43-63
Win rate
40.6%
Units
-24.02u (106 picks)
Streak
W5
ROI
-22.7%
Second half sample, still growing. We show every graded pick, including labeled outage backfills. Live plays update when games go final.
Last graded: Sep 13, 2026 6:44 AM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
Since the rules changed · Jul 26, 2026
Card capped at 10% edge, free pick by win probability
106 graded picks; flat 1u per play
W-L
43-63
Win rate
40.6%
Units
-24.02u (106 picks)
Streak
W5
ROI
-22.7%
On our own graded history the model's biggest edges were its worst plays, so plays above 10% edge no longer make the card and the free pick is now the highest model win probability in the band. Everything from before the change stays on the record above — nothing was removed.
Last graded: Sep 13, 2026 6:44 AM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
Hot runs & streaks
Built from every graded full card pick (up to 5 a day). Updates when games go final. Public Pick of the Day streaks are separate.
Longest win streak
W14
individual picks in a row
Longest cold streak
L7
individual picks in a row
Current streak
W5
all picks, chronological
Best Pick of the Day run
W5
May 4 to May 9
Best days (4+ wins on card)
- Aug 11
- Aug 9
- Jul 24
- Jul 22
- May 20
Best 7-day windows
- May 15 to May 21
- May 14 to May 20
- May 16 to May 22
| Date | Team | Opponent | Result | Units | Running total units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Atlanta Braves | Philadelphia Phillies | W | +0.85u | -24.02u |
| 2026-09-12 | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | W | +0.53u | -24.87u |
| 2026-09-12 | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates | W | +0.82u | -25.39u |
| 2026-09-12 | Washington Nationals | Los Angeles Angels | W | +0.86u | -26.21u |
| 2026-09-11 | New York Yankees | New York Mets | W | +0.72u | -27.07u |
| 2026-09-10 | Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners | L | -1.00u | -27.80u |
| 2026-09-09 | Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners | L | -1.00u | -26.80u |
| 2026-09-09 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Kansas City Royals | L | -1.00u | -25.80u |
| 2026-09-08 | Cleveland Guardians | Baltimore Orioles | W | +1.10u | -24.80u |
| 2026-09-08 | St. Louis Cardinals | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -25.90u |
| 2026-09-08 | Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners | W | +1.20u | -24.90u |
| 2026-09-08 | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Angels | L | -1.00u | -26.10u |
| 2026-09-07 | Miami Marlins | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -25.10u |
| 2026-09-07 | Cleveland Guardians | Baltimore Orioles | L | -1.00u | -24.10u |
| 2026-09-07 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.94u | -23.10u |
| 2026-09-07 | St. Louis Cardinals | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -24.04u |
| 2026-09-07 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | W | +0.63u | -23.04u |
| 2026-09-06 | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | L | -1.00u | -23.67u |
| 2026-09-06 | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres | L | -1.00u | -22.67u |
| 2026-09-06 | Tampa Bay Rays | Texas Rangers | L | -1.00u | -21.67u |
| 2026-09-05 | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | L | -1.00u | -20.67u |
| 2026-09-05 | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres | W | +0.98u | -19.67u |
| 2026-09-05 | Tampa Bay Rays | Texas Rangers | W | +0.93u | -20.65u |
| 2026-09-05 | St. Louis Cardinals | Colorado Rockies | L | -1.00u | -21.58u |
| 2026-09-04 | Atlanta Braves | Philadelphia Phillies | W | +0.96u | -20.58u |
| 2026-09-04 | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | W | +0.62u | -21.54u |
| 2026-09-04 | Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | W | +0.85u | -22.16u |
| 2026-09-04 | Toronto Blue Jays | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.99u | -23.01u |
| 2026-09-04 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Houston Astros | L | -1.00u | -24.00u |
| 2026-09-03 | Cleveland Guardians | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | -23.00u |
| 2026-09-03 | Miami Marlins | Kansas City Royals | L | -1.00u | -22.00u |
| 2026-09-02 | Miami Marlins | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.96u | -21.00u |
| 2026-09-02 | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros | L | -1.00u | -21.96u |
| 2026-09-02 | Cleveland Guardians | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | -20.96u |
| 2026-09-02 | Boston Red Sox | Seattle Mariners | L | -1.00u | -19.96u |
| 2026-09-01 | Milwaukee Brewers | Chicago Cubs | W | +1.06u | -18.96u |
| 2026-09-01 | Miami Marlins | Kansas City Royals | W | +1.00u | -20.02u |
| 2026-09-01 | Boston Red Sox | Seattle Mariners | L | -1.00u | -21.02u |
| 2026-09-01 | Tampa Bay Rays | New York Mets | W | +0.82u | -20.02u |
| 2026-08-31 | Milwaukee Brewers | Chicago Cubs | L | -1.00u | -20.84u |
| 2026-08-31 | New York Yankees | Los Angeles Angels | L | -1.00u | -19.84u |
| 2026-08-31 | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros | L | -1.00u | -18.84u |
| 2026-08-31 | Detroit Tigers | Minnesota Twins | L | -1.00u | -17.84u |
| 2026-08-31 | Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -16.84u |
| 2026-08-30 | New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | W | +1.04u | -15.84u |
| 2026-08-30 | Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | L | -1.00u | -16.88u |
| 2026-08-30 | Toronto Blue Jays | Seattle Mariners | W | +1.22u | -15.88u |
| 2026-08-30 | Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | L | -1.00u | -17.10u |
| 2026-08-30 | Milwaukee Brewers | Texas Rangers | L | -1.00u | -16.10u |
| 2026-08-29 | Houston Astros | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -15.10u |
| 2026-08-29 | Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | W | +1.06u | -14.10u |
| 2026-08-29 | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -15.16u |
| 2026-08-29 | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | W | +1.02u | -14.16u |
| 2026-08-29 | Milwaukee Brewers | Texas Rangers | W | +0.64u | -15.18u |
| 2026-08-28 | Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals | L | -1.00u | -15.82u |
| 2026-08-28 | Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | W | +1.00u | -14.82u |
| 2026-08-27 | St. Louis Cardinals | Baltimore Orioles | W | +1.06u | -15.82u |
| 2026-08-27 | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -16.88u |
| 2026-08-27 | Toronto Blue Jays | Kansas City Royals | L | -1.00u | -15.88u |
| 2026-08-27 | Washington Nationals | Colorado Rockies | W | +0.83u | -14.88u |
| 2026-08-26 | Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets | W | +0.67u | -15.71u |
| 2026-08-26 | New York Yankees | Houston Astros | W | +0.74u | -16.38u |
| 2026-08-26 | Tampa Bay Rays | Detroit Tigers | W | +1.06u | -17.12u |
| 2026-08-26 | Chicago Cubs | Arizona Diamondbacks | L | -1.00u | -18.18u |
| 2026-08-26 | Washington Nationals | Colorado Rockies | L | -1.00u | -17.18u |
| 2026-08-24 | Philadelphia Phillies | Seattle Mariners | L | -1.00u | -16.18u |
| 2026-08-23 | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.94u | -15.18u |
| 2026-08-23 | Chicago Cubs | Seattle Mariners | W | +0.94u | -16.12u |
| 2026-08-23 | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | L | -1.00u | -17.07u |
| 2026-08-23 | Chicago White Sox | New York Mets | W | +1.00u | -16.07u |
| 2026-08-23 | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +0.75u | -17.07u |
| 2026-08-22 | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles | L | -1.00u | -17.81u |
| 2026-08-22 | Chicago White Sox | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -16.81u |
| 2026-08-22 | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | L | -1.00u | -15.81u |
| 2026-08-22 | Chicago Cubs | Seattle Mariners | L | -1.00u | -14.81u |
| 2026-08-22 | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | -13.81u |
| 2026-08-21 | Chicago Cubs | Seattle Mariners | L | -1.00u | -12.81u |
| 2026-08-21 | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | L | -1.00u | -11.81u |
| 2026-08-20 | St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | W | +0.91u | -10.81u |
| 2026-08-20 | New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.82u | -11.72u |
| 2026-08-20 | Washington Nationals | Texas Rangers | L | -1.00u | -12.54u |
| 2026-08-20 | Milwaukee Brewers | Seattle Mariners | W | +0.81u | -11.54u |
| 2026-08-19 | New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.82u | -12.35u |
| 2026-08-19 | Atlanta Braves | Minnesota Twins | L | -1.00u | -13.17u |
| 2026-08-19 | Milwaukee Brewers | Seattle Mariners | L | -1.00u | -12.17u |
| 2026-08-18 | Atlanta Braves | Minnesota Twins | L | -1.00u | -11.17u |
| 2026-08-18 | New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.91u | -10.17u |
| 2026-08-18 | Washington Nationals | Texas Rangers | L | -1.00u | -11.08u |
| 2026-08-18 | Detroit Tigers | Pittsburgh Pirates | L | -1.00u | -10.08u |
| 2026-08-18 | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | -9.08u |
| 2026-08-17 | San Diego Padres | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -8.08u |
| 2026-08-17 | Atlanta Braves | Minnesota Twins | L | -1.00u | -7.08u |
| 2026-08-16 | Philadelphia Phillies | Minnesota Twins | W | +0.94u | -6.08u |
| 2026-08-16 | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles | L | -1.00u | -7.02u |
| 2026-08-16 | Texas Rangers | Athletics | L | -1.00u | -6.02u |
| 2026-08-16 | Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals | L | -1.00u | -5.02u |
| 2026-08-16 | Atlanta Braves | Arizona Diamondbacks | W | +0.82u | -4.02u |
| 2026-08-15 | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles | L | -1.00u | -4.84u |
| 2026-08-15 | San Diego Padres | Cleveland Guardians | L | -1.00u | -3.84u |
| 2026-08-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers | L | -1.00u | -2.84u |
| 2026-08-15 | Washington Nationals | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -1.84u |
| 2026-08-15 | Miami Marlins | Cincinnati Reds | W | +1.00u | -0.84u |
| 2026-08-14 | Miami Marlins | Cincinnati Reds | L | -1.00u | -1.84u |
| 2026-08-14 | San Diego Padres | Cleveland Guardians | W | +1.16u | -0.84u |
| 2026-08-14 | Washington Nationals | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -2.00u |
| 2026-08-14 | Texas Rangers | Athletics | L | -1.00u | -1.00u |