MLB · graded history

Verified Pick Record

Every graded pick at the line we posted, flat 1u, running total. Nothing gets deleted.

MLB full card · Since 2026-09-06

Flat 1u, every pick

20 graded picks; flat 1u per play

Overall 9-11

Win rate 45.0%

Units -3.34u (20 picks)

Streak W5

ROI -16.7%

Second half sample, still growing. We show every graded pick, including labeled outage backfills. Live plays update when games go final.

Last graded: Sep 13, 2026 6:45 AM ET

Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.

Since the rules changed · Jul 26, 2026

Card capped at 10% edge, free pick by win probability

20 graded picks; flat 1u per play

W-L 9-11

Win rate 45.0%

Units -3.34u (20 picks)

Streak W5

ROI -16.7%

On our own graded history the model's biggest edges were its worst plays, so plays above 10% edge no longer make the card and the free pick is now the highest model win probability in the band. Everything from before the change stays on the record above — nothing was removed.

Last graded: Sep 13, 2026 6:45 AM ET

Hot runs & streaks

Built from every graded full card pick (up to 5 a day). Updates when games go final. Public Pick of the Day streaks are separate.

        Longest win streak
        W14
        individual picks in a row
      

        Longest cold streak
        L7
        individual picks in a row
      

        Current streak
        W5
        all picks, chronological
      

        Best Pick of the Day run
        W5
        May 4 to May 9
      

        Best days (4+ wins on card)
        
            Aug 11
            5-0 · 5 picks
          
            Aug 9
            5-0 · 5 picks
          
            Jul 24
            5-0 · 5 picks
          
            Jul 22
            5-0 · 5 picks
          
            May 20
            5-0 · 5 picks
          
        Best 7-day windows
        
            May 15 to May 21
            24-11 · 35 picks
          
            May 14 to May 20
            23-12 · 35 picks
          
            May 16 to May 22
            22-13 · 35 picks

20 graded picks Download CSV

Every graded pick at the line originally published, with units and a running total.
Date	Team	Opponent	Result	Units	Running total units
2026-09-12	Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies	W	+0.85u	-3.34u
2026-09-12	Milwaukee Brewers	Cincinnati Reds	W	+0.53u	-4.19u
2026-09-12	Chicago Cubs	Pittsburgh Pirates	W	+0.82u	-4.72u
2026-09-12	Washington Nationals	Los Angeles Angels	W	+0.86u	-5.54u
2026-09-11	New York Yankees	New York Mets	W	+0.72u	-6.40u
2026-09-10	Texas Rangers	Seattle Mariners	L	-1.00u	-7.12u
2026-09-09	Texas Rangers	Seattle Mariners	L	-1.00u	-6.12u
2026-09-09	Arizona Diamondbacks	Kansas City Royals	L	-1.00u	-5.12u
2026-09-08	Cleveland Guardians	Baltimore Orioles	W	+1.10u	-4.12u
2026-09-08	St. Louis Cardinals	San Francisco Giants	L	-1.00u	-5.22u
2026-09-08	Texas Rangers	Seattle Mariners	W	+1.20u	-4.22u
2026-09-08	Boston Red Sox	Los Angeles Angels	L	-1.00u	-5.42u
2026-09-07	Miami Marlins	New York Mets	L	-1.00u	-4.42u
2026-09-07	Cleveland Guardians	Baltimore Orioles	L	-1.00u	-3.42u
2026-09-07	Arizona Diamondbacks	Kansas City Royals	W	+0.94u	-2.42u
2026-09-07	St. Louis Cardinals	San Francisco Giants	L	-1.00u	-3.37u
2026-09-07	Los Angeles Dodgers	Cincinnati Reds	W	+0.63u	-2.37u
2026-09-06	Milwaukee Brewers	Cincinnati Reds	L	-1.00u	-3.00u
2026-09-06	New York Yankees	San Diego Padres	L	-1.00u	-2.00u
2026-09-06	Tampa Bay Rays	Texas Rangers	L	-1.00u	-1.00u