NFL weeks feel bigger than baseball days. Primetime. Injury reports. Friends in a group chat who "love" a side. That pressure makes people size up.
Flat unit betting ignores the noise. Same stake every play. The sport changes. The bankroll rule does not.
If you want the full baseball write-up, see flat betting explained. Short definition of the stake label: what does 1u mean.
What flat 1u means for football
1u is your normal risk on a single NFL play. You pick a dollar amount tied to your bankroll (often 1% to 2%), then use that same amount on every graded pick.
Examples:
- $1,000 bankroll → 1u = $10 to $20
- $5,000 bankroll → 1u = $50 to $100
Win or lose Sunday, Monday's unit size stays the same.
Why NFL makes people abandon flat sizing
Football has fewer games than baseball. Each result feels heavier. After a 0-3 start to the season, it is tempting to bet 3u on the "lock" to get even.
That usually makes the hole deeper. A short season already has high week-to-week variance. Variable staking adds a second random variable on top of the picks.
What flat units buy you
1. A clean record. +4.2u means something. "+$210 but I bet bigger on the wins" does not.
2. Survivability. A bad month hurts. It should not end the season.
3. Honest comparison. You can compare model weeks without stake theater.
When we launch NFL picks on Daily Picks Free, public grading will use the same flat 1u approach as MLB. See the NFL hub for launch status.
What about "stronger" opinions?
Some people bet 1u on most plays and 1.5u to 2u only when a written rule fires (for example: edge above X% and win probability above Y%). That can be fine if the rule is fixed before the bet.
What is not fine: sizing up because you lost last week, or because the game is on national TV.
Quick checklist
- Unit size set before Week 1
- Same risk on dogs and favorites
- No "get even" bet after a red shirt
- Results logged in units, not only dollars
Flat units will not make a bad model good. They keep a decent process alive long enough to find out which it is.