Every NFL game offers two ways to back the same team: the moneyline (just win) and the spread (win by more than the number). They are not the same bet at different prices. They win and lose in different games.
Here is how they compare over 3,028 NFL games from 2015 through 2025 (regular season and playoffs), with closing lines from the nflverse schedule data.
Basics first if you need them: NFL moneyline betting · Our weekly free play: NFL hub
How often favorites win, by spread size
| Closing spread | Games | Favorite won outright | Favorite covered | Won but did not cover | Typical favorite moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 2.5 | 699 | 51.9% | 48.4% | 3.3% | -126 |
| 3 | 433 | 59.8% | 43.4% | 6.2% | -160 |
| 3.5 to 6.5 | 1,030 | 66.1% | 47.7% | 17.7% | -218 |
| 7 | 172 | 75.0% | 47.1% | 21.5% | -310 |
| 7.5 to 9.5 | 320 | 75.9% | 46.6% | 29.4% | -373 |
| 10 to 13.5 | 269 | 84.4% | 48.7% | 33.1% | -508 |
| 14+ | 101 | 90.1% | 48.5% | 38.6% | -1050 |
Three things jump out.
Favorites cover a little under half the time at every size. That's the spread doing its job: the book moves the number until both sides are close to 50/50. Knowing a team is favored tells you almost nothing about the spread.
The "won but didn't cover" column grows fast. At 1 to 2.5 points it barely exists (3%): if a small favorite wins, it almost always covers too. For a double-digit favorite, one game in three is a win that loses the spread bet.
The moneyline charges for those outright wins. Favorites of 10 to 13.5 points won about 84% of the time, but at a typical -508 you need 83.5% just to break even. There's no free money on either side. The two bets just pay out in different games.
Why 3 and 7 matter so much
NFL scores move in 3s and 7s, so final margins bunch up:
| Final margin | Share of games |
|---|---|
| Exactly 3 | 14.8% |
| Exactly 7 | 8.7% |
| Exactly 6 | 6.9% |
| 3 or less | 24.3% |
| 7 or less | 48.9% |
One game in seven ends by exactly 3. That's why a spread of 3 is a different bet from 2.5 or 3.5, and why 10% of games with a closing spread of exactly 3 pushed. The moneyline has no such cliffs. A win by 1 pays the same as a win by 30.
When the moneyline is the better tool
Small favorites and close games. Between 1 and 2.5 points, the favorite covered in 48.4% of games and won outright in 51.9%. The difference is tiny, so you are mostly choosing between prices. A moneyline around -126 is often the simpler bet.
Underdogs you think can win. Taking the points pays about even money. If your read is that the dog wins outright, the plus-money moneyline pays you for that opinion.
When you want a clean grade. No half-points, no pushes on 3, no backdoor covers. This is why our free NFL pick is always a moneyline.
When the spread is the better tool
Big favorites. Past about a touchdown, the moneyline price gets steep enough that one upset erases a month of wins. If you like a 10-point favorite, the spread at -110 is usually the more practical way to back it.
When your opinion is about margin, not the winner. "The Chiefs win by two touchdowns" is a spread opinion. Betting it on the moneyline pays you for the easy part.
How our NFL model uses this
Our NFL model outputs a win probability, so it lines up directly with the moneyline. We compare that number to the posted price and post one free Pick of the Week only when the model is at 52%+ and the edge is between 3% and 10%. Spreads aren't on the free card at all. See how an NFL betting model works.
Converting a spread to a win chance (rough guide)
Using the averages from the table above (each is an average across its range):
- -1 to -2.5: about 52% to win outright
- -3: about 60%
- -3.5 to -6.5: about 66%
- -7: about 75%
- -10 to -13.5: about 84%
Use it as a sanity check. If a book offers a -3 favorite at -120 on the moneyline, the break-even is 54.5%. That's cheap next to a ~60% historical win rate, and worth a closer look (or a sign something else is going on, like a quarterback question).
FAQ
Is the moneyline or the spread better for NFL betting?
Neither in general. Moneylines suit close games and underdogs. Spreads suit big favorites and margin opinions. Pick whichever price you think is wrong.
Why do favorites cover less than half the time?
Pushes and the vig. The book sets the spread near 50/50 and pushes on key numbers take a slice. Neither side covers much more than half.
Can an NFL moneyline push?
Only on a tie, which happened in 0.3% of these games.
Data: nflverse schedule release, 2015-2025 regular season and playoffs, closing spread and moneyline as published there. Historical rates describe the past; they are not a betting system.