Byes start in Week 5 this season. Every week after that, someone will tell you to back the team coming off the bye: two weeks to prepare, extra healing time, a fresh game plan. The rest is real. The question for a bettor is whether the price already knows about it.
We checked every regular-season game from 2015 through 2025 in the nflverse schedule data, and compared each result with the closing moneyline.
Weekly free play: NFL hub · Method: how an NFL betting model works
Off a bye vs. a normal week
"Off a bye" means 13+ days of rest. The opponent had a normal week (6-8 days).
| Spot | Team-games | Won | Market expected* | Flat 1u on the moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off a bye vs. normal rest | 268 | 54.5% | 52.8% | -0.7% ROI |
| Normal rest vs. normal rest | 4,040 | 49.8% | 50.0% | -3.6% ROI |
| Off a bye, at home | 132 | 59.8% | 59.8% | -6.5% ROI |
| Off a bye, on the road | 136 | 49.3% | 46.0% | +5.0% ROI |
*Market expected = the average no-vig win probability implied by the closing moneylines.
Teams off a bye do win more. 54.5% against a normal-rest opponent is a real bump over 50%.
The market sees it coming. The closing moneylines already priced those teams at 52.8%. The gap between what happened and what was priced is under 2 points, over 268 games. That's well inside what luck produces in a sample this size.
Betting every bye team blindly roughly broke even. -0.7% ROI beats betting random sides (-3.6%, which is mostly the vig), but that isn't a system. The home and road split looks interesting (road teams off a bye +5.0%, home teams -6.5%). But 130-odd games each is far too few to trust. We wouldn't bet on it, and we don't recommend you do.
Why the edge isn't bigger
- The bye is on the schedule in May. It's the most public piece of information in football, and oddsmakers adjust for it before anyone else.
- The opponent may have rested too. A Thursday-night team gets a mini-bye (10-11 days). In our data those teams went 51.2% against normal-rest opponents, priced at 52.1%.
- Both teams off a bye cancel out. When both teams had 13+ days (58 team-games), it was exactly 50/50, as it should be.
What actually moves after a bye
The rest itself is priced. What can be mispriced is what changed during the break:
- A starting quarterback returning from injury, or a new one taking over
- A coordinator or play-caller change
- Injury news that breaks late in the bye week
That's news, not rest. Those spots are exactly where our weekly card is most careful. A game with unresolved quarterback status can be pulled from the card before it posts. See free NFL picks.
2026 NFL bye weeks
From the nflverse schedule:
| Week | Teams on bye |
|---|---|
| 5 | Carolina, Kansas City |
| 6 | Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, Minnesota |
| 7 | Buffalo, Jacksonville, LA Chargers, Washington |
| 8 | Houston, New Orleans, NY Giants, San Francisco |
| 9 | Pittsburgh, Tennessee |
| 10 | Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay |
| 11 | Atlanta, Cleveland, Green Bay, LA Rams, New England, Seattle |
| 13 | Baltimore, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, NY Jets |
| 14 | Arizona, Dallas |
No byes in Week 12. Each team's first game back is the week after its bye.
How to use this
- Treat "off a bye" as already in the number, because it usually is.
- Look for what changed during the bye: quarterback, coaching, injuries.
- Convert the moneyline to a win probability and compare it with your own estimate. See NFL moneyline betting and moneyline vs spread.
- Bet flat. A 268-game sample is small. One weekend is nothing. See flat unit betting in the NFL.
Our free NFL Pick of the Week posts Wednesday mornings, with every result on the NFL record.
Data: nflverse schedule release, 2015-2025 regular seasons; rest days and closing moneylines as published there. Past rates are descriptive, not a betting system.