If you open a CS2 board you will see everything: match winner, map handicaps, total maps, round lines, pistol winners, correct scores. Tip culture loves the exotic markets because they are easy to narrate.
We do not. The public CS2 card is series match moneyline only. Here is why.
1. One market, one grade
A public record only works if every play is the same kind of bet. Mix match winners with map −1.5 and "pistol overs," and the ledger becomes impossible to compare. Flat 1u tracking needs a single stake on a single market type.
Match moneyline answers one question: who wins the series?
2. The reference line is clearer
For v1 we grade against real two-sided moneylines from esports-friendly books (GG.bet priority, Bet365 backup). Those match markets are deep enough to treat as a serious price. Many prop markets are thinner, move slower, and are easier to cherry-pick after the fact.
3. Less room for "lineup theater"
Map picks invite paragraphs about vetoes, server, and who is "feeling it." Some of that is real. Most of what gets posted is content, not edge. A team-level series model stays closer to probability vs price.
4. Bo1 / Bo3 / Bo5 still fit one ticket
Format changes the variance, not the bet type. Whether it is a Bo1 or a Major final Bo5, the moneyline is still "who wins the match." We update ratings from the series map score, not from every round.
5. The free pick stays honest
The free Pick of the Day uses the same bar as MLB: 52%+ model win probability and 3%–10% edge. That bar only makes sense on a market we can explain in one line. Props would turn the public pick into tip-site soup.
What we are not saying
We are not saying map markets are "unbeatable" or never useful. We are saying our public product will not pretend a mixed prop scrapbook is a transparent model card.
If you want the process:
- recorded match moneyline
- model win %
- edge
- flat 1u
- nothing deleted
That lives on the CS2 hub. For the mistakes we refuse to ship, see CS2 betting mistakes.