MLB · graded history
Verified Pick Record
Every graded pick at the line we posted, flat 1u, running total. Nothing gets deleted.
MLB full card · Since 2026-05-31
Flat 1u, every pick
155 graded picks; flat 1u per play
Overall
82-73
Win rate
52.9%
Units
+5.39u (155 picks)
Streak
W2
ROI
+3.5%
Second half sample, still growing. We show every graded pick, including labeled outage backfills. Live plays update when games go final.
Last graded: Jul 30, 2026 5:51 AM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
Since the rules changed · Jul 26, 2026
Card capped at 10% edge, free pick by win probability
17 graded picks; flat 1u per play
W-L
9-8
Win rate
52.9%
Units
+0.11u (17 picks)
Streak
W2
ROI
+0.6%
On our own graded history the model's biggest edges were its worst plays, so plays above 10% edge no longer make the card and the free pick is now the highest model win probability in the band. Everything from before the change stays on the record above — nothing was removed.
Last graded: Jul 30, 2026 5:51 AM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
Hot runs & streaks
Built from every graded full card pick (up to 5 a day). Updates when games go final. Public Pick of the Day streaks are separate.
Longest win streak
W14
individual picks in a row
Longest cold streak
L7
individual picks in a row
Current streak
W2
all picks, chronological
Best Pick of the Day run
W5
May 4 to May 9
Best days (4+ wins on card)
- Jul 24
- Jul 22
- May 20
- May 19
- May 7
Best 7-day windows
- May 15 to May 21
- May 14 to May 20
- May 16 to May 22
| Date | Team | Opponent | Result | Units | Running total units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | W | +0.70u | +5.39u |
| 2026-07-29 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners | W | +0.66u | +4.69u |
| 2026-07-29 | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | L | -1.00u | +4.03u |
| 2026-07-29 | Washington Nationals | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | +5.03u |
| 2026-07-28 | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | W | +0.86u | +6.03u |
| 2026-07-28 | Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | W | +0.94u | +5.17u |
| 2026-07-28 | Boston Red Sox | Athletics | L | -1.00u | +4.23u |
| 2026-07-28 | Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | W | +0.70u | +5.23u |
| 2026-07-27 | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | W | +0.91u | +4.52u |
| 2026-07-27 | Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies | W | +1.44u | +3.61u |
| 2026-07-27 | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | +2.17u |
| 2026-07-27 | Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | +3.17u |
| 2026-07-26 | San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Angels | L | -1.00u | +4.17u |
| 2026-07-26 | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros | W | +0.93u | +5.17u |
| 2026-07-26 | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates | L | -1.00u | +4.25u |
| 2026-07-26 | Atlanta Braves | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.96u | +5.25u |
| 2026-07-26 | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | +4.29u |
| Selection rules changed Jul 26, 2026 — everything below ran under the old rule (biggest edge in band, no cap). Kept on the record, not removed. | |||||
| 2026-07-25 | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros | L | -1.00u | +5.29u |
| 2026-07-25 | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates | W | +1.12u | +6.29u |
| 2026-07-25 | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Mets | W | +0.61u | +5.17u |
| 2026-07-25 | Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | +4.56u |
| 2026-07-25 | Atlanta Braves | Baltimore Orioles | L | -1.00u | +5.56u |
| 2026-07-24 | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates | W | +1.04u | +6.56u |
| 2026-07-24 | Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +0.81u | +5.52u |
| 2026-07-24 | New York Yankees | Philadelphia Phillies | W | +1.04u | +4.71u |
| 2026-07-24 | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Mets | W | +0.68u | +3.67u |
| 2026-07-24 | Atlanta Braves | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.98u | +2.99u |
| 2026-07-23 | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | +2.01u |
| 2026-07-22 | St. Louis Cardinals | Los Angeles Angels | W | +1.04u | +3.01u |
| 2026-07-22 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Athletics | W | +0.86u | +1.97u |
| 2026-07-22 | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +0.96u | +1.11u |
| 2026-07-22 | Atlanta Braves | San Diego Padres | W | +0.85u | +0.15u |
| 2026-07-22 | Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets | W | +0.72u | -0.70u |
| 2026-07-21 | Seattle Mariners | Cincinnati Reds | L | -1.00u | -1.42u |
| 2026-07-21 | Chicago White Sox | Texas Rangers | L | -1.00u | -0.42u |
| 2026-07-21 | Washington Nationals | Colorado Rockies | L | -1.00u | +0.58u |
| 2026-07-21 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | W | +1.14u | +1.58u |
| 2026-07-21 | Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | +0.44u |
| 2026-07-20 | Miami Marlins | Houston Astros | L | -1.00u | +1.44u |
| 2026-07-20 | St. Louis Cardinals | Los Angeles Angels | L | -1.00u | +2.44u |
| 2026-07-20 | Chicago White Sox | Texas Rangers | W | +1.42u | +3.44u |
| 2026-07-20 | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +1.34u | +2.02u |
| 2026-07-20 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | L | -1.00u | +0.68u |
| 2026-07-19 | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Yankees | W | +0.89u | +1.68u |
| 2026-07-19 | Milwaukee Brewers | Miami Marlins | W | +0.77u | +0.79u |
| 2026-07-19 | San Diego Padres | Kansas City Royals | W | +1.14u | +0.02u |
| 2026-07-19 | Atlanta Braves | Texas Rangers | W | +1.04u | -1.12u |
| 2026-07-19 | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -2.16u |
| 2026-07-17 | Cincinnati Reds | Colorado Rockies | W | +0.98u | -1.16u |
| 2026-07-17 | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Yankees | W | +0.93u | -2.14u |
| 2026-07-17 | Detroit Tigers | Los Angeles Angels | W | +0.91u | -3.07u |
| 2026-07-17 | Chicago White Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +1.14u | -3.98u |
| 2026-07-16 | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -5.12u |
| 2026-07-12 | San Diego Padres | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +1.08u | -4.12u |
| 2026-07-12 | New York Yankees | Washington Nationals | W | +0.91u | -5.20u |
| 2026-07-12 | Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals | W | +1.10u | -6.11u |
| 2026-07-12 | Chicago White Sox | Athletics | W | +0.86u | -7.21u |
| 2026-07-12 | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | L | -1.00u | -8.07u |
| 2026-07-07 | Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | L | -1.00u | -7.07u |
| 2026-07-07 | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres | L | -1.00u | -6.07u |
| 2026-07-07 | Chicago Cubs | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.89u | -5.07u |
| 2026-07-07 | Chicago White Sox | Boston Red Sox | L | -1.00u | -5.96u |
| 2026-07-07 | Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | L | -1.00u | -4.96u |
| 2026-07-06 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | W | +0.48u | -3.96u |
| 2026-07-06 | Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | W | +0.85u | -4.44u |
| 2026-07-06 | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -5.29u |
| 2026-07-01 | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | W | +0.60u | -4.29u |
| 2026-07-01 | Washington Nationals | Boston Red Sox | W | +1.22u | -4.88u |
| 2026-07-01 | Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.76u | -6.10u |
| 2026-07-01 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Athletics | L | -1.00u | -6.86u |
| 2026-07-01 | Chicago White Sox | Baltimore Orioles | L | -1.00u | -5.86u |
| 2026-06-30 | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | W | +0.93u | -4.86u |
| 2026-06-30 | New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | L | -1.00u | -5.79u |
| 2026-06-30 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Athletics | W | +0.64u | -4.79u |
| 2026-06-30 | Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.81u | -5.42u |
| 2026-06-30 | Chicago White Sox | Baltimore Orioles | W | +1.18u | -6.23u |
| 2026-06-28 | Los Angeles Dodgers | San Diego Padres | W | +0.70u | -7.41u |
| 2026-06-28 | Texas Rangers | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +1.14u | -8.11u |
| 2026-06-28 | Detroit Tigers | Houston Astros | L | -1.00u | -9.25u |
| 2026-06-28 | New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | L | -1.00u | -8.25u |
| 2026-06-28 | Washington Nationals | Baltimore Orioles | W | +1.68u | -7.25u |
| 2026-06-27 | Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | W | +1.30u | -8.93u |
| 2026-06-27 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds | L | -1.00u | -10.23u |
| 2026-06-27 | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -9.23u |
| 2026-06-27 | Texas Rangers | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +1.58u | -8.23u |
| 2026-06-27 | Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -9.81u |
| 2026-06-25 | New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | L | -1.00u | -8.81u |
| 2026-06-25 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Seattle Mariners | W | +1.22u | -7.81u |
| 2026-06-25 | Chicago Cubs | New York Mets | W | +0.94u | -9.03u |
| 2026-06-22 | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | W | +0.62u | -9.98u |
| 2026-06-22 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Minnesota Twins | W | +0.63u | -10.59u |
| 2026-06-22 | New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | L | -1.00u | -11.23u |
| 2026-06-22 | Atlanta Braves | San Diego Padres | L | -1.00u | -10.23u |
| 2026-06-19 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Colorado Rockies | L | -1.00u | -9.23u |
| 2026-06-19 | Cleveland Guardians | Houston Astros | L | -1.00u | -8.23u |
| 2026-06-19 | San Diego Padres | Texas Rangers | L | -1.00u | -7.23u |
| 2026-06-19 | Atlanta Braves | Milwaukee Brewers | W | +1.46u | -6.23u |
| 2026-06-19 | Chicago White Sox | Detroit Tigers | L | -1.00u | -7.69u |
| 2026-06-16 | Washington Nationals | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.77u | -6.69u |
| 2026-06-16 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Angels | L | -1.00u | -7.46u |
| 2026-06-16 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Athletics | W | +1.16u | -6.46u |
| 2026-06-16 | Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -7.62u |
| 2026-06-16 | Detroit Tigers | Houston Astros | L | -1.00u | -6.62u |
| 2026-06-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Athletics | L | -1.00u | -5.62u |
| 2026-06-15 | New York Mets | Cincinnati Reds | L | -1.00u | -4.62u |
| 2026-06-14 | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +0.79u | -3.62u |
| 2026-06-14 | St. Louis Cardinals | Minnesota Twins | L | -1.00u | -4.41u |
| 2026-06-14 | Chicago Cubs | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -3.41u |
| 2026-06-14 | Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | W | +1.02u | -2.41u |
| 2026-06-14 | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -3.43u |
| 2026-06-13 | St. Louis Cardinals | Minnesota Twins | W | +1.00u | -2.43u |
| 2026-06-13 | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +0.82u | -3.43u |
| 2026-06-13 | Tampa Bay Rays | Los Angeles Angels | L | -1.00u | -4.25u |
| 2026-06-13 | Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | W | +1.24u | -3.25u |
| 2026-06-13 | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | W | +0.96u | -4.49u |
| 2026-06-12 | San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles | L | -1.00u | -5.45u |
| 2026-06-12 | Texas Rangers | Boston Red Sox | L | -1.00u | -4.45u |
| 2026-06-12 | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | -3.45u |
| 2026-06-12 | St. Louis Cardinals | Minnesota Twins | L | -1.00u | -2.45u |
| 2026-06-12 | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -1.45u |
| 2026-06-11 | Seattle Mariners | Baltimore Orioles | L | -1.00u | -0.45u |
| 2026-06-11 | Texas Rangers | Kansas City Royals | W | +1.00u | +0.55u |
| 2026-06-11 | St. Louis Cardinals | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -0.45u |
| 2026-06-10 | Seattle Mariners | Baltimore Orioles | L | -1.00u | +0.55u |
| 2026-06-10 | St. Louis Cardinals | New York Mets | W | +1.10u | +1.55u |
| 2026-06-10 | Washington Nationals | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | +0.45u |
| 2026-06-10 | New York Yankees | Cleveland Guardians | W | +0.96u | +1.45u |
| 2026-06-10 | Milwaukee Brewers | Athletics | L | -1.00u | +0.49u |
| 2026-06-09 | St. Louis Cardinals | New York Mets | W | +1.14u | +1.49u |
| 2026-06-09 | San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | L | -1.00u | +0.35u |
| 2026-06-09 | Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox | W | +0.94u | +1.35u |
| 2026-06-09 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Pittsburgh Pirates | W | +0.96u | +0.40u |
| 2026-06-09 | Milwaukee Brewers | Athletics | L | -1.00u | -0.56u |
| 2026-06-08 | Milwaukee Brewers | Athletics | W | +0.63u | +0.44u |
| 2026-06-08 | New York Yankees | Cleveland Guardians | W | +0.98u | -0.19u |
| 2026-06-08 | Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox | W | +1.00u | -1.17u |
| 2026-06-08 | Washington Nationals | San Francisco Giants | W | +1.38u | -2.17u |
| 2026-06-07 | Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | L | -1.00u | -3.55u |
| 2026-06-07 | Milwaukee Brewers | Colorado Rockies | W | +0.57u | -2.55u |
| 2026-06-07 | Chicago Cubs | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -3.12u |
| 2026-06-07 | Cleveland Guardians | Texas Rangers | L | -1.00u | -2.12u |
| 2026-06-07 | Chicago White Sox | Philadelphia Phillies | L | -1.00u | -1.12u |
| 2026-06-06 | Chicago White Sox | Philadelphia Phillies | W | +1.14u | -0.12u |
| 2026-06-06 | San Diego Padres | New York Mets | W | +1.06u | -1.26u |
| 2026-06-06 | Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | W | +0.89u | -2.32u |
| 2026-06-05 | Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | W | +0.70u | -3.21u |
| 2026-06-05 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Angels | W | +0.50u | -3.92u |
| 2026-06-05 | New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | L | -1.00u | -4.42u |
| 2026-06-05 | Milwaukee Brewers | Colorado Rockies | W | +0.66u | -3.42u |
| 2026-06-05 | Chicago White Sox | Philadelphia Phillies | L | -1.00u | -4.07u |
| 2026-06-04 | Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -3.07u |
| 2026-06-04 | Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | L | -1.00u | -2.07u |
| 2026-06-04 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | L | -1.00u | -1.07u |
| 2026-06-04 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Houston Astros | W | +0.93u | -0.07u |
| 2026-06-04 | San Diego Padres | Philadelphia Phillies | L | -1.00u | -1.00u |