MLB · graded history
Verified Pick Record
Every graded pick at the line we posted, flat 1u, running total. Nothing gets deleted.
MLB full card · Since 2026-07-23
Flat 1u, every pick
28 graded picks; flat 1u per play
Second half sample, still growing. We show every graded pick, including labeled outage backfills. Live plays update when games go final.
Last graded: Jul 30, 2026 5:51 AM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
Since the rules changed · Jul 26, 2026
Card capped at 10% edge, free pick by win probability
17 graded picks; flat 1u per play
On our own graded history the model's biggest edges were its worst plays, so plays above 10% edge no longer make the card and the free pick is now the highest model win probability in the band. Everything from before the change stays on the record above — nothing was removed.
Last graded: Jul 30, 2026 5:51 AM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
Hot runs & streaks
Built from every graded full card pick (up to 5 a day). Updates when games go final. Public Pick of the Day streaks are separate.
Best days (4+ wins on card)
- Jul 24
- Jul 22
- May 20
- May 19
- May 7
Best 7-day windows
- May 15 to May 21
- May 14 to May 20
- May 16 to May 22
| Date | Team | Opponent | Result | Units | Running total units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | W | +0.70u | +2.38u |
| 2026-07-29 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners | W | +0.66u | +1.68u |
| 2026-07-29 | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | L | -1.00u | +1.02u |
| 2026-07-29 | Washington Nationals | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | +2.02u |
| 2026-07-28 | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | W | +0.86u | +3.02u |
| 2026-07-28 | Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | W | +0.94u | +2.16u |
| 2026-07-28 | Boston Red Sox | Athletics | L | -1.00u | +1.21u |
| 2026-07-28 | Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | W | +0.70u | +2.21u |
| 2026-07-27 | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | W | +0.91u | +1.51u |
| 2026-07-27 | Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies | W | +1.44u | +0.60u |
| 2026-07-27 | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -0.84u |
| 2026-07-27 | Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | +0.16u |
| 2026-07-26 | San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Angels | L | -1.00u | +1.16u |
| 2026-07-26 | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros | W | +0.93u | +2.16u |
| 2026-07-26 | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates | L | -1.00u | +1.23u |
| 2026-07-26 | Atlanta Braves | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.96u | +2.23u |
| 2026-07-26 | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | +1.27u |
| Selection rules changed Jul 26, 2026 — everything below ran under the old rule (biggest edge in band, no cap). Kept on the record, not removed. | |||||
| 2026-07-25 | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros | L | -1.00u | +2.27u |
| 2026-07-25 | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates | W | +1.12u | +3.27u |
| 2026-07-25 | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Mets | W | +0.61u | +2.15u |
| 2026-07-25 | Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | +1.54u |
| 2026-07-25 | Atlanta Braves | Baltimore Orioles | L | -1.00u | +2.54u |
| 2026-07-24 | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates | W | +1.04u | +3.54u |
| 2026-07-24 | Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +0.81u | +2.50u |
| 2026-07-24 | New York Yankees | Philadelphia Phillies | W | +1.04u | +1.70u |
| 2026-07-24 | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Mets | W | +0.68u | +0.66u |
| 2026-07-24 | Atlanta Braves | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.98u | -0.02u |
| 2026-07-23 | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | -1.00u |