MLB · graded history
Verified Pick Record
Every graded pick at the line we posted, flat 1u, running total. Nothing gets deleted.
MLB full card · Since 2026-06-30
Flat 1u, every pick
76 graded picks; flat 1u per play
Overall
46-30
Win rate
60.5%
Units
+12.80u (76 picks)
Streak
W2
ROI
+16.8%
Second half sample, still growing. We show every graded pick, including labeled outage backfills. Live plays update when games go final.
Last graded: Jul 30, 2026 5:52 AM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
Since the rules changed · Jul 26, 2026
Card capped at 10% edge, free pick by win probability
17 graded picks; flat 1u per play
W-L
9-8
Win rate
52.9%
Units
+0.11u (17 picks)
Streak
W2
ROI
+0.6%
On our own graded history the model's biggest edges were its worst plays, so plays above 10% edge no longer make the card and the free pick is now the highest model win probability in the band. Everything from before the change stays on the record above — nothing was removed.
Last graded: Jul 30, 2026 5:52 AM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
Hot runs & streaks
Built from every graded full card pick (up to 5 a day). Updates when games go final. Public Pick of the Day streaks are separate.
Longest win streak
W14
individual picks in a row
Longest cold streak
L7
individual picks in a row
Current streak
W2
all picks, chronological
Best Pick of the Day run
W5
May 4 to May 9
Best days (4+ wins on card)
- Jul 24
- Jul 22
- May 20
- May 19
- May 7
Best 7-day windows
- May 15 to May 21
- May 14 to May 20
- May 16 to May 22
| Date | Team | Opponent | Result | Units | Running total units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | W | +0.70u | +12.80u |
| 2026-07-29 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners | W | +0.66u | +12.10u |
| 2026-07-29 | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | L | -1.00u | +11.44u |
| 2026-07-29 | Washington Nationals | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | +12.44u |
| 2026-07-28 | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | W | +0.86u | +13.44u |
| 2026-07-28 | Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | W | +0.94u | +12.58u |
| 2026-07-28 | Boston Red Sox | Athletics | L | -1.00u | +11.64u |
| 2026-07-28 | Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | W | +0.70u | +12.64u |
| 2026-07-27 | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | W | +0.91u | +11.93u |
| 2026-07-27 | Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies | W | +1.44u | +11.02u |
| 2026-07-27 | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | +9.58u |
| 2026-07-27 | Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | +10.58u |
| 2026-07-26 | San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Angels | L | -1.00u | +11.58u |
| 2026-07-26 | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros | W | +0.93u | +12.58u |
| 2026-07-26 | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates | L | -1.00u | +11.66u |
| 2026-07-26 | Atlanta Braves | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.96u | +12.66u |
| 2026-07-26 | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | +11.70u |
| Selection rules changed Jul 26, 2026 — everything below ran under the old rule (biggest edge in band, no cap). Kept on the record, not removed. | |||||
| 2026-07-25 | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros | L | -1.00u | +12.70u |
| 2026-07-25 | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates | W | +1.12u | +13.70u |
| 2026-07-25 | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Mets | W | +0.61u | +12.58u |
| 2026-07-25 | Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | +11.97u |
| 2026-07-25 | Atlanta Braves | Baltimore Orioles | L | -1.00u | +12.97u |
| 2026-07-24 | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates | W | +1.04u | +13.97u |
| 2026-07-24 | Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +0.81u | +12.93u |
| 2026-07-24 | New York Yankees | Philadelphia Phillies | W | +1.04u | +12.12u |
| 2026-07-24 | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Mets | W | +0.68u | +11.08u |
| 2026-07-24 | Atlanta Braves | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.98u | +10.40u |
| 2026-07-23 | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | +9.42u |
| 2026-07-22 | St. Louis Cardinals | Los Angeles Angels | W | +1.04u | +10.42u |
| 2026-07-22 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Athletics | W | +0.86u | +9.38u |
| 2026-07-22 | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +0.96u | +8.52u |
| 2026-07-22 | Atlanta Braves | San Diego Padres | W | +0.85u | +7.56u |
| 2026-07-22 | Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets | W | +0.72u | +6.71u |
| 2026-07-21 | Seattle Mariners | Cincinnati Reds | L | -1.00u | +5.99u |
| 2026-07-21 | Chicago White Sox | Texas Rangers | L | -1.00u | +6.99u |
| 2026-07-21 | Washington Nationals | Colorado Rockies | L | -1.00u | +7.99u |
| 2026-07-21 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | W | +1.14u | +8.99u |
| 2026-07-21 | Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | +7.85u |
| 2026-07-20 | Miami Marlins | Houston Astros | L | -1.00u | +8.85u |
| 2026-07-20 | St. Louis Cardinals | Los Angeles Angels | L | -1.00u | +9.85u |
| 2026-07-20 | Chicago White Sox | Texas Rangers | W | +1.42u | +10.85u |
| 2026-07-20 | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +1.34u | +9.43u |
| 2026-07-20 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | L | -1.00u | +8.09u |
| 2026-07-19 | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Yankees | W | +0.89u | +9.09u |
| 2026-07-19 | Milwaukee Brewers | Miami Marlins | W | +0.77u | +8.19u |
| 2026-07-19 | San Diego Padres | Kansas City Royals | W | +1.14u | +7.43u |
| 2026-07-19 | Atlanta Braves | Texas Rangers | W | +1.04u | +6.29u |
| 2026-07-19 | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | +5.25u |
| 2026-07-17 | Cincinnati Reds | Colorado Rockies | W | +0.98u | +6.25u |
| 2026-07-17 | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Yankees | W | +0.93u | +5.26u |
| 2026-07-17 | Detroit Tigers | Los Angeles Angels | W | +0.91u | +4.34u |
| 2026-07-17 | Chicago White Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +1.14u | +3.43u |
| 2026-07-16 | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | +2.29u |
| 2026-07-12 | San Diego Padres | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +1.08u | +3.29u |
| 2026-07-12 | New York Yankees | Washington Nationals | W | +0.91u | +2.21u |
| 2026-07-12 | Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals | W | +1.10u | +1.30u |
| 2026-07-12 | Chicago White Sox | Athletics | W | +0.86u | +0.20u |
| 2026-07-12 | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | L | -1.00u | -0.66u |
| 2026-07-07 | Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | L | -1.00u | +0.34u |
| 2026-07-07 | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres | L | -1.00u | +1.34u |
| 2026-07-07 | Chicago Cubs | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.89u | +2.34u |
| 2026-07-07 | Chicago White Sox | Boston Red Sox | L | -1.00u | +1.45u |
| 2026-07-07 | Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | L | -1.00u | +2.45u |
| 2026-07-06 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | W | +0.48u | +3.45u |
| 2026-07-06 | Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | W | +0.85u | +2.97u |
| 2026-07-06 | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | +2.12u |
| 2026-07-01 | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | W | +0.60u | +3.12u |
| 2026-07-01 | Washington Nationals | Boston Red Sox | W | +1.22u | +2.53u |
| 2026-07-01 | Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.76u | +1.31u |
| 2026-07-01 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Athletics | L | -1.00u | +0.55u |
| 2026-07-01 | Chicago White Sox | Baltimore Orioles | L | -1.00u | +1.55u |
| 2026-06-30 | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | W | +0.93u | +2.55u |
| 2026-06-30 | New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | L | -1.00u | +1.62u |
| 2026-06-30 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Athletics | W | +0.64u | +2.62u |
| 2026-06-30 | Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.81u | +1.99u |
| 2026-06-30 | Chicago White Sox | Baltimore Orioles | W | +1.18u | +1.18u |